Gold has always been a prized possession, but its price can swing wildly depending on global and local events. As we move past Akshaya Tritiya 2025 (April 30), many are wondering: Will gold prices drop?
Let’s break down the key factors that could influence gold rates in the coming months.
1. Global Economic Health
Gold thrives in times of uncertainty—think high inflation, wars, or financial crises. If the world economy finds its footing, inflation stays controlled, and growth picks up, the appetite for gold might decrease, leading to softer prices.
Chance of Impact: Moderate (30–40%)
2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar
Gold and the U.S. dollar often move in opposite directions. When the dollar strengthens—thanks to robust economic indicators or rising interest rates—gold tends to lose some shine.
Chance of Impact: High (50–60%)
3. Rising Interest Rates
Higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less appealing. If the Federal Reserve and other central banks continue hiking rates through 2025, expect downward pressure on gold prices.
Chance of Impact: Moderate (40–50%)
4. Post-Akshaya Tritiya Slowdown
Demand for gold typically surges during Akshaya Tritiya in India, pushing prices higher. But historically, this demand tapers off in the weeks following, potentially easing prices slightly in May and June 2025.
Chance of Impact: Moderate (30–40%)
5. Easing Geopolitical Tensions
If conflicts simmer down—whether in the Middle East or elsewhere—gold’s appeal as a “safe haven” could weaken, dragging down prices.
Chance of Impact: Low to Moderate (20–30%)
6. Investor Moves: ETFs and Futures
When major players start selling off gold ETFs or trimming their positions in gold futures, it puts downward pressure on prices. A strong stock market often triggers this kind of behavior.
Chance of Impact: Moderate (30–40%)
Current Gold Price Snapshot (April 2025)
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Globally, gold is trading between $2,000 and $2,100 per ounce, with plenty of movement based on inflation trends and U.S. Federal Reserve signals.
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In India, 22-karat gold is priced at approximately ₹9,337 per gram (based on April 2024 data from IBJA), but expect some adjustments soon.
Important Insight: Jewellery Isn’t the Best Gold Investment
Buying gold jewellery might seem like a smart investment, but it often isn’t. High making charges, GST, and other fees eat into returns when you eventually sell it.
For better investment value, look into:
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24-karat gold coins (lower making charges)
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Gold ETFs
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Gold mutual funds
These options often offer higher purity, easier storage, and lower overall costs.
Will Gold Prices Fall Soon?
Given the current climate, analysts see a 40–50% probability that gold could dip by 3–7% by June 2025 roughly translating to:
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A ₹300–₹600 per gram drop in India
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A $50–$150 decline per ounce globally
However, these projections assume:
✔ No fresh economic crises
✔ A strong U.S. dollar
✔ No major geopolitical upheavals
If unexpected events like a sudden inflation spike or new conflicts emerge, gold could surge again.
Should You Wait Before Buying Gold?
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For jewellery:
If buying for Akshaya Tritiya, don’t wait too long. Any post-festival price drop will likely be modest.
Tip: Always compare prices across jewellers and insist on BIS-hallmarked gold for assured purity. -
For investment:
Gold coins, Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), and ETFs are smarter choices.
Stay updated with economic news and price trends before making your move.
Final Word
While there’s a fair chance gold prices might slide after Akshaya Tritiya 2025, nothing is certain in the gold market.
Whether you’re purchasing gold for tradition or investment, it’s crucial to make informed decisions and closely follow global market trends. Stay updated through reliable sources like the IBJA website or trusted financial news platforms.
